I’m not sure, but such-and-such, seems more likely.

————

How do you know what you know is true. You don’t. You can’t. No one can. The reality is that we can never know that anything is absolutely, no doubt about it, 100% true. That does not stop us from believing something is absolutely, no doubt about it, 100% true. That delusion would be comically ironic if not for the damage caused when you’re smacked in the face by an actuality much different than you supposed it to be.

Never happened to you. Uh huh, you must be very lucky.

The rest of us get things wrong all the time. The most common modern error is innocent trust in experts, statistics, and theory. We should remember that an expert, by definition, is someone who knows a great deal about very little. Statistics can be made to show whatever the statistician wants to show.

Theories are regularly overruled by reality.

Making decisions based on what is more likely, or less likely, is a better bet. Probability isn’t as satisfying as certain certainty, but it is more reliable, and we do it naturally, every day. We place a calculated bet on every decision we make, whither it’s a big-deal decision or routine. When you take your umbrella with you on an overcast day, you’re betting that it will rain, even though it might not rain. Too bad we can’t have an umbrella for our other - maybe/maybe not - decisions.

Investment brokers are required by law to inform customers, “Past results do not guarantee future earnings“. We should probably get that advice in Kindergarten, it applies to most of life. Keeping it in mind won’t prevent all blunders. It will make for fewer blunders.

Thinking, “”, is better than being completely sure, and then be proved completely wrong. No tactic will prevent all error, calculating probability is your best bet.

Three common ways to comfortably obscure reality.

1. Matters of the heart – When you want so much for something to be true you convince yourself it is true, the facts be dammed.

2. Orthodoxy – When you believe that authoritarian sources like news reports, accepted science, and government proclamations must be true because official institutions aren’t allowed to lie or get things wrong. Aren’t they bound by law to always tell the truth?

3. Slough – When you suddenly realize - because you long ago stopped questioning it,

that something you’ve believed for years is wrong.

I guess we all know what we know - or don’t - about knowing.

Ya’ know.

By K. L. Shipley